Updated 2026-10-01 · refreshed monthly
Fair Value Gap (SMC) vs MACD Trend
Both strategies backtested with default parameters on the same 50 coins, daily bars since 2021, $10,000 and standard fees — then compared per coin and on unseen data. No cherry-picking: every shared coin counts.
Fair Value Gap (SMC) wins this matchup 48–2 across 50 shared coins. That's a description of one past period with default parameters — regimes move this scoreboard, which is why it refreshes monthly.
Fair Value Gap (SMC)🏆
- Coins won (full-period return)
- 48
- Median out-of-sample Sharpe
- 0.39
- Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
- 38
- Median return
- +375.3%
- Median max drawdown
- -35.6%
MACD Trend
- Coins won (full-period return)
- 2
- Median out-of-sample Sharpe
- -0.23
- Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
- 18
- Median return
- -2.6%
- Median max drawdown
- -43.0%
Coin by coin
| Coin | Fair Value Gap (SMC) | MACD Trend | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAVE | +1934.6% | -41.2% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ADA | +562.6% | +2.2% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ALGO | +452.6% | -20.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| APT | +271.2% | -5.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ARB | +154.0% | -33.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ATOM | +27.9% | -33.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| AVAX | +2798.6% | +33.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| AXS | +104.4% | +69.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| BNB | +262.0% | +16.8% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| BTC | -64.0% | -40.2% | MACD Trend |
| DOGE | +2237.7% | +3.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| DOT | +125.4% | -2.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| EGLD | +192.8% | -10.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ETC | +286.8% | -2.8% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ETH | +54.4% | -35.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| FET | +8335.3% | +0.8% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| FIL | +59.4% | -27.2% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| FLOW | +283.1% | -28.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| GRT | +526.6% | -23.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| HBAR | +177.9% | +25.2% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ICP | +838.7% | +43.3% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| IMX | +1451.6% | -0.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| INJ | +659.1% | +15.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| JUP | +19.6% | +34.7% | MACD Trend |
| LDO | +524.6% | -31.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| LINK | +6.2% | -34.2% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| LTC | +81.0% | -33.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| MANA | +5438.8% | -44.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| MATIC | +342.7% | +94.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| MKR | +407.9% | +37.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| NEAR | +6105.1% | +95.0% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| OP | +640.1% | +15.0% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| PEPE | +2212.5% | +52.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| RENDER | +215.1% | -19.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| RUNE | +769.2% | +105.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SAND | +4267.6% | -59.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SEI | +454.2% | -50.0% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SHIB | +1305.8% | 0.0% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SOL | +83.7% | +11.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SUI | +159.7% | -47.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| THETA | +460.1% | -50.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| TIA | +204.5% | +25.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| TON | +9.1% | -6.8% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| TRX | +46.5% | +9.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| UNI | +1070.0% | +9.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| VET | +1275.7% | +26.3% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| WIF | +243.8% | +94.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| XLM | +847.4% | -22.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| XRP | +698.6% | -2.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| XTZ | +333.1% | -18.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
Returns are full-period (since 2021), default parameters, $10,000 starting balance. Click a ticker for the full per-coin breakdown.
Settle it on your own terms
Default parameters on daily bars is one arena. Test either strategy on your coin, your timeframe and your risk rules — free, with the same out-of-sample honesty check.
Auto-generated from real backtests of the stated past period with default parameters. Hypothetical results, not financial advice; past performance does not guarantee future results.