Updated 2026-07-09 · refreshed monthly
Fair Value Gap (SMC) vs MACD Trend
Both strategies backtested with default parameters on the same 50 coins, daily bars since 2021, $10,000 and standard fees — then compared per coin and on unseen data. No cherry-picking: every shared coin counts.
Fair Value Gap (SMC) wins this matchup 48–2 across 50 shared coins. That's a description of one past period with default parameters — regimes move this scoreboard, which is why it refreshes monthly.
Fair Value Gap (SMC)🏆
- Coins won (full-period return)
- 48
- Median out-of-sample Sharpe
- 0.43
- Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
- 41
- Median return
- +370.1%
- Median max drawdown
- -35.3%
MACD Trend
- Coins won (full-period return)
- 2
- Median out-of-sample Sharpe
- -0.39
- Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
- 17
- Median return
- -7.1%
- Median max drawdown
- -42.7%
Coin by coin
| Coin | Fair Value Gap (SMC) | MACD Trend | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAVE | +1942.1% | -40.0% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ADA | +508.0% | +11.3% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ALGO | +431.7% | -25.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| APT | +269.0% | -6.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ARB | +115.9% | -41.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ATOM | +24.0% | -31.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| AVAX | +2251.9% | +4.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| AXS | +121.7% | +66.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| BNB | +271.4% | +8.3% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| BTC | -60.0% | -39.1% | MACD Trend |
| DOGE | +2096.4% | +3.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| DOT | +106.0% | -7.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| EGLD | +171.0% | -6.2% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ETC | +245.1% | +2.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ETH | +56.2% | -38.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| FET | +9307.1% | -4.3% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| FIL | +67.7% | -28.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| FLOW | +267.3% | -30.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| GRT | +505.1% | -16.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| HBAR | +165.9% | +15.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ICP | +697.5% | +34.3% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| IMX | +1445.5% | -10.2% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| INJ | +684.1% | -12.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| JUP | +17.0% | +37.1% | MACD Trend |
| LDO | +485.4% | -27.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| LINK | -1.8% | -28.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| LTC | +67.9% | -31.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| MANA | +5395.0% | -45.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| MATIC | +342.7% | +94.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| MKR | +407.9% | +37.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| NEAR | +4882.5% | +91.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| OP | +594.5% | +10.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| PEPE | +1633.3% | +10.0% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| RENDER | +202.4% | -25.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| RUNE | +706.6% | +108.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SAND | +3982.3% | -60.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SEI | +398.1% | -47.3% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SHIB | +1191.3% | -16.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SOL | +104.7% | +13.0% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SUI | +117.3% | -47.2% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| THETA | +388.7% | -50.8% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| TIA | +183.5% | +21.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| TON | +9.1% | -6.8% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| TRX | +41.6% | +11.2% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| UNI | +924.2% | +1.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| VET | +1058.6% | +24.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| WIF | +221.2% | +82.0% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| XLM | +868.5% | -22.3% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| XRP | +728.5% | -18.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| XTZ | +351.5% | -18.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
Returns are full-period (since 2021), default parameters, $10,000 starting balance. Click a ticker for the full per-coin breakdown.
Settle it on your own terms
Default parameters on daily bars is one arena. Test either strategy on your coin, your timeframe and your risk rules — free, with the same out-of-sample honesty check.
Auto-generated from real backtests of the stated past period with default parameters. Hypothetical results, not financial advice; past performance does not guarantee future results.