Noon Barbari

Updated 2026-07-09 · refreshed monthly

Fair Value Gap (SMC) on SHIB — backtest results

Default-parameter Fair Value Gap (SMC) replayed on SHIB/USDT daily bars from 2021-05-10 to 2026-07-08, starting from $10,000 with standard fees. Trade the fill of an imbalance / fair-value gap.

Strategy return
+1191.25%
Buy & hold
-87.62%
Sharpe ratio
0.99
Max drawdown
26.9%
Trades
181
Win rate
50%

Equity curve, 2021-05-10 → 2026-07-08

Does it hold up on unseen data?

In-sample Sharpe (first 70%)
1.26
Out-of-sample Sharpe (last 30%)
0.14

We split the history chronologically — first 70% vs last 30% — and score both windows separately. A strategy that only works on the window it was designed around is memorizing the past, not finding an edge. This configuration was roughly flat on the unseen window — no evidence of an edge either way.

Run it yourself — change anything

Open this exact strategy in the studio with every parameter editable, or replay it with your own balance and dates in the free backtester.

Fair Value Gap (SMC) on other coins

Other strategies on SHIB

Auto-generated from public exchange data with default strategy parameters. Backtests are hypothetical; results describe the stated past period only and are not predictions or financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.