Free trading tools
Breakeven win-rate calculator
Plug in a risk-to-reward ratio and see the minimum win-rate needed to be profitable. Pair with the risk-reward calculator to size expectations against reality.
Inputs
If your stop risks 1R and your target is 2R away, enter 2. Common rungs: 1.5, 2, 3.
What this number means
It's the win-rate at which gross PnL is zero. Beat it and you make money; miss it and you lose. Use it as a sanity check: if your strategy's R:R only needs a 30% win-rate but you're hitting 25%, you have an edge problem, not a sizing problem.
Required win-rate
Breakeven win-rate
33.33%
at 1 : 2.00 risk-to-reward
Reference table
| Risk : reward | Breakeven win-rate |
|---|---|
| 1 : 0.50 | 66.67% |
| 1 : 1.00 | 50.00% |
| 1 : 1.50 | 40.00% |
| 1 : 2.00 | 33.33% |
| 1 : 2.50 | 28.57% |
| 1 : 3.00 | 25.00% |
| 1 : 4.00 | 20.00% |
| 1 : 5.00 | 16.67% |
Risk : reward
1 : 2.00
Required win-rate
33.33%
Breakeven win-rate = 1 / (1 + RR). At 1:1, you need 50% wins. At 1:2, you need ~33%. At 1:3, you need 25%. Above that rate, expectancy is positive — below, you bleed.
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