Updated 2026-10-01 · refreshed monthly
EMA Crossover vs Fair Value Gap (SMC)
Both strategies backtested with default parameters on the same 50 coins, daily bars since 2021, $10,000 and standard fees — then compared per coin and on unseen data. No cherry-picking: every shared coin counts.
Fair Value Gap (SMC) wins this matchup 48–2 across 50 shared coins. That's a description of one past period with default parameters — regimes move this scoreboard, which is why it refreshes monthly.
EMA Crossover
- Coins won (full-period return)
- 2
- Median out-of-sample Sharpe
- 0.14
- Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
- 27
- Median return
- +19.7%
- Median max drawdown
- -17.0%
Fair Value Gap (SMC)🏆
- Coins won (full-period return)
- 48
- Median out-of-sample Sharpe
- 0.39
- Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
- 38
- Median return
- +375.3%
- Median max drawdown
- -35.6%
Coin by coin
| Coin | EMA Crossover | Fair Value Gap (SMC) | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAVE | +67.6% | +1934.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ADA | +8.0% | +562.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ALGO | +48.1% | +452.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| APT | +6.1% | +271.2% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ARB | +26.9% | +154.0% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ATOM | +3.3% | +27.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| AVAX | +19.4% | +2798.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| AXS | +70.4% | +104.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| BNB | -2.7% | +262.0% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| BTC | +3.3% | -64.0% | EMA Crossover |
| DOGE | +72.2% | +2237.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| DOT | -14.7% | +125.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| EGLD | +7.2% | +192.8% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ETC | +28.9% | +286.8% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ETH | -25.1% | +54.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| FET | +203.8% | +8335.3% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| FIL | +12.6% | +59.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| FLOW | -29.6% | +283.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| GRT | +33.0% | +526.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| HBAR | +52.9% | +177.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ICP | +38.3% | +838.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| IMX | +42.4% | +1451.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| INJ | +20.3% | +659.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| JUP | -1.3% | +19.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| LDO | +3.6% | +524.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| LINK | +34.8% | +6.2% | EMA Crossover |
| LTC | +0.1% | +81.0% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| MANA | +20.6% | +5438.8% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| MATIC | -26.5% | +342.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| MKR | +20.1% | +407.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| NEAR | +54.3% | +6105.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| OP | +5.8% | +640.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| PEPE | +30.7% | +2212.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| RENDER | +28.5% | +215.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| RUNE | +27.7% | +769.2% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SAND | -9.9% | +4267.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SEI | -1.7% | +454.2% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SHIB | +1.4% | +1305.8% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SOL | +42.7% | +83.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SUI | +64.9% | +159.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| THETA | +5.1% | +460.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| TIA | +6.3% | +204.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| TON | -4.4% | +9.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| TRX | +27.2% | +46.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| UNI | -7.3% | +1070.0% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| VET | +42.7% | +1275.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| WIF | +67.3% | +243.8% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| XLM | +37.4% | +847.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| XRP | -9.6% | +698.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| XTZ | -11.1% | +333.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
Returns are full-period (since 2021), default parameters, $10,000 starting balance. Click a ticker for the full per-coin breakdown.
Settle it on your own terms
Default parameters on daily bars is one arena. Test either strategy on your coin, your timeframe and your risk rules — free, with the same out-of-sample honesty check.
Auto-generated from real backtests of the stated past period with default parameters. Hypothetical results, not financial advice; past performance does not guarantee future results.