Updated 2026-07-09 · refreshed monthly
SMA Breakout vs Trend Magic
Both strategies backtested with default parameters on the same 50 coins, daily bars since 2021, $10,000 and standard fees — then compared per coin and on unseen data. No cherry-picking: every shared coin counts.
Trend Magic wins this matchup 44–6 across 50 shared coins. That's a description of one past period with default parameters — regimes move this scoreboard, which is why it refreshes monthly.
SMA Breakout
- Coins won (full-period return)
- 6
- Median out-of-sample Sharpe
- -0.46
- Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
- 12
- Median return
- -24.0%
- Median max drawdown
- -44.3%
Trend Magic🏆
- Coins won (full-period return)
- 44
- Median out-of-sample Sharpe
- 0.30
- Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
- 30
- Median return
- +115.9%
- Median max drawdown
- -35.4%
Coin by coin
| Coin | SMA Breakout | Trend Magic | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAVE | -34.2% | +699.9% | Trend Magic |
| ADA | -19.8% | +59.1% | Trend Magic |
| ALGO | -61.5% | +40.1% | Trend Magic |
| APT | +2.9% | -22.2% | SMA Breakout |
| ARB | -30.4% | -25.0% | Trend Magic |
| ATOM | -41.7% | +187.7% | Trend Magic |
| AVAX | -23.9% | +90.7% | Trend Magic |
| AXS | +345.8% | -3.3% | SMA Breakout |
| BNB | -25.8% | -49.9% | SMA Breakout |
| BTC | -40.6% | -65.5% | SMA Breakout |
| DOGE | +203.2% | +26.6% | SMA Breakout |
| DOT | -40.3% | -35.0% | Trend Magic |
| EGLD | +28.4% | +159.1% | Trend Magic |
| ETC | -36.2% | +176.8% | Trend Magic |
| ETH | -54.8% | +4.6% | Trend Magic |
| FET | +192.6% | +1138.9% | Trend Magic |
| FIL | -60.5% | -3.9% | Trend Magic |
| FLOW | -54.0% | +81.0% | Trend Magic |
| GRT | -58.0% | +317.1% | Trend Magic |
| HBAR | -26.3% | +87.4% | Trend Magic |
| ICP | +18.7% | +75.2% | Trend Magic |
| IMX | +101.4% | +598.2% | Trend Magic |
| INJ | +175.1% | +198.5% | Trend Magic |
| JUP | -2.0% | +59.5% | Trend Magic |
| LDO | +21.6% | +232.1% | Trend Magic |
| LINK | -45.5% | +117.7% | Trend Magic |
| LTC | -41.7% | +20.4% | Trend Magic |
| MANA | -52.4% | +544.6% | Trend Magic |
| MATIC | -30.0% | +244.6% | Trend Magic |
| MKR | -16.6% | +213.2% | Trend Magic |
| NEAR | -12.7% | +300.5% | Trend Magic |
| OP | +134.8% | +165.8% | Trend Magic |
| PEPE | +27.7% | +60.4% | Trend Magic |
| RENDER | -16.6% | +42.2% | Trend Magic |
| RUNE | +86.2% | +193.0% | Trend Magic |
| SAND | -35.9% | +673.8% | Trend Magic |
| SEI | +0.5% | +43.8% | Trend Magic |
| SHIB | -39.9% | +110.8% | Trend Magic |
| SOL | -45.8% | +14.5% | Trend Magic |
| SUI | +69.1% | +153.7% | Trend Magic |
| THETA | -31.1% | +483.3% | Trend Magic |
| TIA | -24.1% | +203.8% | Trend Magic |
| TON | -23.2% | -5.4% | Trend Magic |
| TRX | -2.4% | +114.1% | Trend Magic |
| UNI | -43.0% | +188.3% | Trend Magic |
| VET | -69.3% | +270.4% | Trend Magic |
| WIF | -6.3% | +189.9% | Trend Magic |
| XLM | -11.3% | +136.5% | Trend Magic |
| XRP | -29.7% | +182.4% | Trend Magic |
| XTZ | +24.3% | +11.0% | SMA Breakout |
Returns are full-period (since 2021), default parameters, $10,000 starting balance. Click a ticker for the full per-coin breakdown.
Settle it on your own terms
Default parameters on daily bars is one arena. Test either strategy on your coin, your timeframe and your risk rules — free, with the same out-of-sample honesty check.
Auto-generated from real backtests of the stated past period with default parameters. Hypothetical results, not financial advice; past performance does not guarantee future results.