Updated 2026-08-01 · refreshed monthly
SMA Breakout vs Trend Magic
Both strategies backtested with default parameters on the same 50 coins, daily bars since 2021, $10,000 and standard fees — then compared per coin and on unseen data. No cherry-picking: every shared coin counts.
Trend Magic wins this matchup 44–6 across 50 shared coins. That's a description of one past period with default parameters — regimes move this scoreboard, which is why it refreshes monthly.
SMA Breakout
- Coins won (full-period return)
- 6
- Median out-of-sample Sharpe
- -0.48
- Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
- 8
- Median return
- -25.9%
- Median max drawdown
- -44.6%
Trend Magic🏆
- Coins won (full-period return)
- 44
- Median out-of-sample Sharpe
- 0.19
- Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
- 31
- Median return
- +107.6%
- Median max drawdown
- -35.5%
Coin by coin
| Coin | SMA Breakout | Trend Magic | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAVE | -35.5% | +644.9% | Trend Magic |
| ADA | -22.9% | +60.2% | Trend Magic |
| ALGO | -62.5% | +40.0% | Trend Magic |
| APT | -3.8% | -22.2% | SMA Breakout |
| ARB | -30.4% | -23.9% | Trend Magic |
| ATOM | -41.7% | +182.7% | Trend Magic |
| AVAX | -28.6% | +76.0% | Trend Magic |
| AXS | +345.8% | -6.2% | SMA Breakout |
| BNB | -27.7% | -51.0% | SMA Breakout |
| BTC | -41.2% | -68.5% | SMA Breakout |
| DOGE | +188.4% | +26.1% | SMA Breakout |
| DOT | -42.8% | -37.0% | Trend Magic |
| EGLD | +28.4% | +146.5% | Trend Magic |
| ETC | -40.1% | +179.7% | Trend Magic |
| ETH | -54.8% | +1.7% | Trend Magic |
| FET | +181.3% | +1138.9% | Trend Magic |
| FIL | -60.7% | -7.1% | Trend Magic |
| FLOW | -50.6% | +101.3% | Trend Magic |
| GRT | -58.0% | +317.1% | Trend Magic |
| HBAR | -28.6% | +83.6% | Trend Magic |
| ICP | +15.2% | +74.3% | Trend Magic |
| IMX | +96.9% | +617.5% | Trend Magic |
| INJ | +161.1% | +193.8% | Trend Magic |
| JUP | -3.7% | +66.2% | Trend Magic |
| LDO | +21.6% | +237.4% | Trend Magic |
| LINK | -47.3% | +106.3% | Trend Magic |
| LTC | -41.7% | +14.3% | Trend Magic |
| MANA | -52.4% | +535.5% | Trend Magic |
| MATIC | -30.0% | +244.6% | Trend Magic |
| MKR | -16.6% | +213.2% | Trend Magic |
| NEAR | -11.8% | +286.8% | Trend Magic |
| OP | +133.7% | +164.6% | Trend Magic |
| PEPE | +26.0% | +60.0% | Trend Magic |
| RENDER | -16.6% | +42.8% | Trend Magic |
| RUNE | +85.9% | +180.4% | Trend Magic |
| SAND | -37.0% | +700.4% | Trend Magic |
| SEI | +0.5% | +41.7% | Trend Magic |
| SHIB | -33.6% | +91.9% | Trend Magic |
| SOL | -46.3% | +8.6% | Trend Magic |
| SUI | +67.8% | +143.3% | Trend Magic |
| THETA | -31.1% | +479.8% | Trend Magic |
| TIA | -24.1% | +200.4% | Trend Magic |
| TON | -23.2% | -5.4% | Trend Magic |
| TRX | -4.0% | +109.0% | Trend Magic |
| UNI | -43.0% | +188.3% | Trend Magic |
| VET | -70.0% | +258.7% | Trend Magic |
| WIF | -7.3% | +187.3% | Trend Magic |
| XLM | -14.0% | +133.1% | Trend Magic |
| XRP | -31.4% | +161.0% | Trend Magic |
| XTZ | +17.7% | +7.7% | SMA Breakout |
Returns are full-period (since 2021), default parameters, $10,000 starting balance. Click a ticker for the full per-coin breakdown.
Settle it on your own terms
Default parameters on daily bars is one arena. Test either strategy on your coin, your timeframe and your risk rules — free, with the same out-of-sample honesty check.
Auto-generated from real backtests of the stated past period with default parameters. Hypothetical results, not financial advice; past performance does not guarantee future results.