Updated 2026-10-01 · refreshed monthly
SMA Breakout vs Trend Magic
Both strategies backtested with default parameters on the same 50 coins, daily bars since 2021, $10,000 and standard fees — then compared per coin and on unseen data. No cherry-picking: every shared coin counts.
Trend Magic wins this matchup 45–5 across 50 shared coins. That's a description of one past period with default parameters — regimes move this scoreboard, which is why it refreshes monthly.
SMA Breakout
- Coins won (full-period return)
- 5
- Median out-of-sample Sharpe
- -0.27
- Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
- 12
- Median return
- -21.8%
- Median max drawdown
- -44.8%
Trend Magic🏆
- Coins won (full-period return)
- 45
- Median out-of-sample Sharpe
- 0.27
- Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
- 32
- Median return
- +110.8%
- Median max drawdown
- -35.5%
Coin by coin
| Coin | SMA Breakout | Trend Magic | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAVE | -21.9% | +787.4% | Trend Magic |
| ADA | -16.5% | +59.3% | Trend Magic |
| ALGO | -57.4% | +46.3% | Trend Magic |
| APT | +23.3% | -22.6% | SMA Breakout |
| ARB | -25.5% | -3.8% | Trend Magic |
| ATOM | -39.5% | +178.4% | Trend Magic |
| AVAX | -28.8% | +99.2% | Trend Magic |
| AXS | +322.1% | -6.6% | SMA Breakout |
| BNB | -29.2% | -49.9% | SMA Breakout |
| BTC | -38.4% | -69.5% | SMA Breakout |
| DOGE | +183.9% | +33.7% | SMA Breakout |
| DOT | -39.2% | -34.8% | Trend Magic |
| EGLD | +29.1% | +110.9% | Trend Magic |
| ETC | -39.1% | +217.7% | Trend Magic |
| ETH | -47.4% | +4.5% | Trend Magic |
| FET | +235.9% | +1021.4% | Trend Magic |
| FIL | -58.8% | +11.2% | Trend Magic |
| FLOW | -47.5% | +110.7% | Trend Magic |
| GRT | -54.0% | +344.5% | Trend Magic |
| HBAR | -30.2% | +73.6% | Trend Magic |
| ICP | +15.2% | +82.4% | Trend Magic |
| IMX | +112.9% | +679.7% | Trend Magic |
| INJ | +196.5% | +199.8% | Trend Magic |
| JUP | +4.9% | +81.4% | Trend Magic |
| LDO | +37.0% | +209.5% | Trend Magic |
| LINK | -45.8% | +112.4% | Trend Magic |
| LTC | -35.3% | +16.9% | Trend Magic |
| MANA | -52.0% | +590.0% | Trend Magic |
| MATIC | -30.0% | +244.6% | Trend Magic |
| MKR | -16.6% | +213.2% | Trend Magic |
| NEAR | -3.9% | +312.2% | Trend Magic |
| OP | +132.2% | +172.9% | Trend Magic |
| PEPE | +32.9% | +71.8% | Trend Magic |
| RENDER | -13.4% | +46.3% | Trend Magic |
| RUNE | +96.7% | +175.3% | Trend Magic |
| SAND | -37.4% | +746.4% | Trend Magic |
| SEI | +0.8% | +57.7% | Trend Magic |
| SHIB | -34.6% | +81.2% | Trend Magic |
| SOL | -44.1% | +0.9% | Trend Magic |
| SUI | +76.1% | +168.3% | Trend Magic |
| THETA | -30.7% | +590.3% | Trend Magic |
| TIA | -21.8% | +230.0% | Trend Magic |
| TON | -23.2% | -5.4% | Trend Magic |
| TRX | -4.3% | +109.7% | Trend Magic |
| UNI | -39.6% | +213.1% | Trend Magic |
| VET | -70.8% | +283.4% | Trend Magic |
| WIF | -2.1% | +233.9% | Trend Magic |
| XLM | -10.4% | +169.3% | Trend Magic |
| XRP | -21.1% | +202.1% | Trend Magic |
| XTZ | +23.4% | +25.1% | Trend Magic |
Returns are full-period (since 2021), default parameters, $10,000 starting balance. Click a ticker for the full per-coin breakdown.
Settle it on your own terms
Default parameters on daily bars is one arena. Test either strategy on your coin, your timeframe and your risk rules — free, with the same out-of-sample honesty check.
Auto-generated from real backtests of the stated past period with default parameters. Hypothetical results, not financial advice; past performance does not guarantee future results.