Updated 2026-07-09 · refreshed monthly
SMA Breakout vs MACD Trend
Both strategies backtested with default parameters on the same 50 coins, daily bars since 2021, $10,000 and standard fees — then compared per coin and on unseen data. No cherry-picking: every shared coin counts.
MACD Trend wins this matchup 31–19 across 50 shared coins. That's a description of one past period with default parameters — regimes move this scoreboard, which is why it refreshes monthly.
SMA Breakout
- Coins won (full-period return)
- 19
- Median out-of-sample Sharpe
- -0.46
- Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
- 12
- Median return
- -24.0%
- Median max drawdown
- -44.3%
MACD Trend🏆
- Coins won (full-period return)
- 31
- Median out-of-sample Sharpe
- -0.39
- Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
- 17
- Median return
- -7.1%
- Median max drawdown
- -42.7%
Coin by coin
| Coin | SMA Breakout | MACD Trend | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAVE | -34.2% | -40.0% | SMA Breakout |
| ADA | -19.8% | +11.3% | MACD Trend |
| ALGO | -61.5% | -25.5% | MACD Trend |
| APT | +2.9% | -6.6% | SMA Breakout |
| ARB | -30.4% | -41.7% | SMA Breakout |
| ATOM | -41.7% | -31.5% | MACD Trend |
| AVAX | -23.9% | +4.4% | MACD Trend |
| AXS | +345.8% | +66.5% | SMA Breakout |
| BNB | -25.8% | +8.3% | MACD Trend |
| BTC | -40.6% | -39.1% | MACD Trend |
| DOGE | +203.2% | +3.1% | SMA Breakout |
| DOT | -40.3% | -7.4% | MACD Trend |
| EGLD | +28.4% | -6.2% | SMA Breakout |
| ETC | -36.2% | +2.6% | MACD Trend |
| ETH | -54.8% | -38.4% | MACD Trend |
| FET | +192.6% | -4.3% | SMA Breakout |
| FIL | -60.5% | -28.7% | MACD Trend |
| FLOW | -54.0% | -30.5% | MACD Trend |
| GRT | -58.0% | -16.9% | MACD Trend |
| HBAR | -26.3% | +15.7% | MACD Trend |
| ICP | +18.7% | +34.3% | MACD Trend |
| IMX | +101.4% | -10.2% | SMA Breakout |
| INJ | +175.1% | -12.9% | SMA Breakout |
| JUP | -2.0% | +37.1% | MACD Trend |
| LDO | +21.6% | -27.4% | SMA Breakout |
| LINK | -45.5% | -28.4% | MACD Trend |
| LTC | -41.7% | -31.6% | MACD Trend |
| MANA | -52.4% | -45.1% | MACD Trend |
| MATIC | -30.0% | +94.6% | MACD Trend |
| MKR | -16.6% | +37.5% | MACD Trend |
| NEAR | -12.7% | +91.1% | MACD Trend |
| OP | +134.8% | +10.9% | SMA Breakout |
| PEPE | +27.7% | +10.0% | SMA Breakout |
| RENDER | -16.6% | -25.4% | SMA Breakout |
| RUNE | +86.2% | +108.7% | MACD Trend |
| SAND | -35.9% | -60.5% | SMA Breakout |
| SEI | +0.5% | -47.3% | SMA Breakout |
| SHIB | -39.9% | -16.5% | MACD Trend |
| SOL | -45.8% | +13.0% | MACD Trend |
| SUI | +69.1% | -47.2% | SMA Breakout |
| THETA | -31.1% | -50.8% | SMA Breakout |
| TIA | -24.1% | +21.1% | MACD Trend |
| TON | -23.2% | -6.8% | MACD Trend |
| TRX | -2.4% | +11.2% | MACD Trend |
| UNI | -43.0% | +1.4% | MACD Trend |
| VET | -69.3% | +24.4% | MACD Trend |
| WIF | -6.3% | +82.0% | MACD Trend |
| XLM | -11.3% | -22.3% | SMA Breakout |
| XRP | -29.7% | -18.7% | MACD Trend |
| XTZ | +24.3% | -18.7% | SMA Breakout |
Returns are full-period (since 2021), default parameters, $10,000 starting balance. Click a ticker for the full per-coin breakdown.
Settle it on your own terms
Default parameters on daily bars is one arena. Test either strategy on your coin, your timeframe and your risk rules — free, with the same out-of-sample honesty check.
Auto-generated from real backtests of the stated past period with default parameters. Hypothetical results, not financial advice; past performance does not guarantee future results.