Updated 2026-10-01 · refreshed monthly
SMA Breakout vs MACD Trend
Both strategies backtested with default parameters on the same 50 coins, daily bars since 2021, $10,000 and standard fees — then compared per coin and on unseen data. No cherry-picking: every shared coin counts.
MACD Trend wins this matchup 31–19 across 50 shared coins. That's a description of one past period with default parameters — regimes move this scoreboard, which is why it refreshes monthly.
SMA Breakout
- Coins won (full-period return)
- 19
- Median out-of-sample Sharpe
- -0.27
- Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
- 12
- Median return
- -21.8%
- Median max drawdown
- -44.8%
MACD Trend🏆
- Coins won (full-period return)
- 31
- Median out-of-sample Sharpe
- -0.23
- Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
- 18
- Median return
- -2.6%
- Median max drawdown
- -43.0%
Coin by coin
| Coin | SMA Breakout | MACD Trend | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAVE | -21.9% | -41.2% | SMA Breakout |
| ADA | -16.5% | +2.2% | MACD Trend |
| ALGO | -57.4% | -20.6% | MACD Trend |
| APT | +23.3% | -5.7% | SMA Breakout |
| ARB | -25.5% | -33.6% | SMA Breakout |
| ATOM | -39.5% | -33.5% | MACD Trend |
| AVAX | -28.8% | +33.9% | MACD Trend |
| AXS | +322.1% | +69.1% | SMA Breakout |
| BNB | -29.2% | +16.8% | MACD Trend |
| BTC | -38.4% | -40.2% | SMA Breakout |
| DOGE | +183.9% | +3.9% | SMA Breakout |
| DOT | -39.2% | -2.5% | MACD Trend |
| EGLD | +29.1% | -10.7% | SMA Breakout |
| ETC | -39.1% | -2.8% | MACD Trend |
| ETH | -47.4% | -35.7% | MACD Trend |
| FET | +235.9% | +0.8% | SMA Breakout |
| FIL | -58.8% | -27.2% | MACD Trend |
| FLOW | -47.5% | -28.9% | MACD Trend |
| GRT | -54.0% | -23.6% | MACD Trend |
| HBAR | -30.2% | +25.2% | MACD Trend |
| ICP | +15.2% | +43.3% | MACD Trend |
| IMX | +112.9% | -0.9% | SMA Breakout |
| INJ | +196.5% | +15.5% | SMA Breakout |
| JUP | +4.9% | +34.7% | MACD Trend |
| LDO | +37.0% | -31.9% | SMA Breakout |
| LINK | -45.8% | -34.2% | MACD Trend |
| LTC | -35.3% | -33.5% | MACD Trend |
| MANA | -52.0% | -44.9% | MACD Trend |
| MATIC | -30.0% | +94.6% | MACD Trend |
| MKR | -16.6% | +37.5% | MACD Trend |
| NEAR | -3.9% | +95.0% | MACD Trend |
| OP | +132.2% | +15.0% | SMA Breakout |
| PEPE | +32.9% | +52.7% | MACD Trend |
| RENDER | -13.4% | -19.6% | SMA Breakout |
| RUNE | +96.7% | +105.5% | MACD Trend |
| SAND | -37.4% | -59.7% | SMA Breakout |
| SEI | +0.8% | -50.0% | SMA Breakout |
| SHIB | -34.6% | 0.0% | MACD Trend |
| SOL | -44.1% | +11.6% | MACD Trend |
| SUI | +76.1% | -47.9% | SMA Breakout |
| THETA | -30.7% | -50.5% | SMA Breakout |
| TIA | -21.8% | +25.5% | MACD Trend |
| TON | -23.2% | -6.8% | MACD Trend |
| TRX | -4.3% | +9.7% | MACD Trend |
| UNI | -39.6% | +9.4% | MACD Trend |
| VET | -70.8% | +26.3% | MACD Trend |
| WIF | -2.1% | +94.1% | MACD Trend |
| XLM | -10.4% | -22.1% | SMA Breakout |
| XRP | -21.1% | -2.9% | MACD Trend |
| XTZ | +23.4% | -18.9% | SMA Breakout |
Returns are full-period (since 2021), default parameters, $10,000 starting balance. Click a ticker for the full per-coin breakdown.
Settle it on your own terms
Default parameters on daily bars is one arena. Test either strategy on your coin, your timeframe and your risk rules — free, with the same out-of-sample honesty check.
Auto-generated from real backtests of the stated past period with default parameters. Hypothetical results, not financial advice; past performance does not guarantee future results.