Updated 2026-07-09 · refreshed monthly
SMA Breakout vs Fair Value Gap (SMC)
Both strategies backtested with default parameters on the same 50 coins, daily bars since 2021, $10,000 and standard fees — then compared per coin and on unseen data. No cherry-picking: every shared coin counts.
Fair Value Gap (SMC) wins this matchup 48–2 across 50 shared coins. That's a description of one past period with default parameters — regimes move this scoreboard, which is why it refreshes monthly.
SMA Breakout
- Coins won (full-period return)
- 2
- Median out-of-sample Sharpe
- -0.46
- Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
- 12
- Median return
- -24.0%
- Median max drawdown
- -44.3%
Fair Value Gap (SMC)🏆
- Coins won (full-period return)
- 48
- Median out-of-sample Sharpe
- 0.43
- Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
- 41
- Median return
- +370.1%
- Median max drawdown
- -35.3%
Coin by coin
| Coin | SMA Breakout | Fair Value Gap (SMC) | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAVE | -34.2% | +1942.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ADA | -19.8% | +508.0% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ALGO | -61.5% | +431.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| APT | +2.9% | +269.0% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ARB | -30.4% | +115.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ATOM | -41.7% | +24.0% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| AVAX | -23.9% | +2251.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| AXS | +345.8% | +121.7% | SMA Breakout |
| BNB | -25.8% | +271.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| BTC | -40.6% | -60.0% | SMA Breakout |
| DOGE | +203.2% | +2096.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| DOT | -40.3% | +106.0% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| EGLD | +28.4% | +171.0% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ETC | -36.2% | +245.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ETH | -54.8% | +56.2% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| FET | +192.6% | +9307.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| FIL | -60.5% | +67.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| FLOW | -54.0% | +267.3% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| GRT | -58.0% | +505.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| HBAR | -26.3% | +165.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ICP | +18.7% | +697.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| IMX | +101.4% | +1445.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| INJ | +175.1% | +684.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| JUP | -2.0% | +17.0% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| LDO | +21.6% | +485.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| LINK | -45.5% | -1.8% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| LTC | -41.7% | +67.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| MANA | -52.4% | +5395.0% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| MATIC | -30.0% | +342.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| MKR | -16.6% | +407.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| NEAR | -12.7% | +4882.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| OP | +134.8% | +594.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| PEPE | +27.7% | +1633.3% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| RENDER | -16.6% | +202.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| RUNE | +86.2% | +706.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SAND | -35.9% | +3982.3% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SEI | +0.5% | +398.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SHIB | -39.9% | +1191.3% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SOL | -45.8% | +104.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SUI | +69.1% | +117.3% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| THETA | -31.1% | +388.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| TIA | -24.1% | +183.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| TON | -23.2% | +9.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| TRX | -2.4% | +41.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| UNI | -43.0% | +924.2% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| VET | -69.3% | +1058.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| WIF | -6.3% | +221.2% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| XLM | -11.3% | +868.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| XRP | -29.7% | +728.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| XTZ | +24.3% | +351.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
Returns are full-period (since 2021), default parameters, $10,000 starting balance. Click a ticker for the full per-coin breakdown.
Settle it on your own terms
Default parameters on daily bars is one arena. Test either strategy on your coin, your timeframe and your risk rules — free, with the same out-of-sample honesty check.
Auto-generated from real backtests of the stated past period with default parameters. Hypothetical results, not financial advice; past performance does not guarantee future results.