Updated 2026-10-01 · refreshed monthly
SMA Breakout vs Fair Value Gap (SMC)
Both strategies backtested with default parameters on the same 50 coins, daily bars since 2021, $10,000 and standard fees — then compared per coin and on unseen data. No cherry-picking: every shared coin counts.
Fair Value Gap (SMC) wins this matchup 48–2 across 50 shared coins. That's a description of one past period with default parameters — regimes move this scoreboard, which is why it refreshes monthly.
SMA Breakout
- Coins won (full-period return)
- 2
- Median out-of-sample Sharpe
- -0.27
- Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
- 12
- Median return
- -21.8%
- Median max drawdown
- -44.8%
Fair Value Gap (SMC)🏆
- Coins won (full-period return)
- 48
- Median out-of-sample Sharpe
- 0.39
- Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
- 38
- Median return
- +375.3%
- Median max drawdown
- -35.6%
Coin by coin
| Coin | SMA Breakout | Fair Value Gap (SMC) | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAVE | -21.9% | +1934.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ADA | -16.5% | +562.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ALGO | -57.4% | +452.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| APT | +23.3% | +271.2% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ARB | -25.5% | +154.0% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ATOM | -39.5% | +27.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| AVAX | -28.8% | +2798.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| AXS | +322.1% | +104.4% | SMA Breakout |
| BNB | -29.2% | +262.0% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| BTC | -38.4% | -64.0% | SMA Breakout |
| DOGE | +183.9% | +2237.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| DOT | -39.2% | +125.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| EGLD | +29.1% | +192.8% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ETC | -39.1% | +286.8% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ETH | -47.4% | +54.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| FET | +235.9% | +8335.3% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| FIL | -58.8% | +59.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| FLOW | -47.5% | +283.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| GRT | -54.0% | +526.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| HBAR | -30.2% | +177.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ICP | +15.2% | +838.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| IMX | +112.9% | +1451.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| INJ | +196.5% | +659.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| JUP | +4.9% | +19.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| LDO | +37.0% | +524.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| LINK | -45.8% | +6.2% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| LTC | -35.3% | +81.0% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| MANA | -52.0% | +5438.8% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| MATIC | -30.0% | +342.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| MKR | -16.6% | +407.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| NEAR | -3.9% | +6105.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| OP | +132.2% | +640.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| PEPE | +32.9% | +2212.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| RENDER | -13.4% | +215.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| RUNE | +96.7% | +769.2% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SAND | -37.4% | +4267.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SEI | +0.8% | +454.2% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SHIB | -34.6% | +1305.8% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SOL | -44.1% | +83.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SUI | +76.1% | +159.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| THETA | -30.7% | +460.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| TIA | -21.8% | +204.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| TON | -23.2% | +9.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| TRX | -4.3% | +46.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| UNI | -39.6% | +1070.0% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| VET | -70.8% | +1275.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| WIF | -2.1% | +243.8% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| XLM | -10.4% | +847.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| XRP | -21.1% | +698.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| XTZ | +23.4% | +333.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
Returns are full-period (since 2021), default parameters, $10,000 starting balance. Click a ticker for the full per-coin breakdown.
Settle it on your own terms
Default parameters on daily bars is one arena. Test either strategy on your coin, your timeframe and your risk rules — free, with the same out-of-sample honesty check.
Auto-generated from real backtests of the stated past period with default parameters. Hypothetical results, not financial advice; past performance does not guarantee future results.