Updated 2026-08-01 · refreshed monthly
SMA Breakout vs Fair Value Gap (SMC)
Both strategies backtested with default parameters on the same 50 coins, daily bars since 2021, $10,000 and standard fees — then compared per coin and on unseen data. No cherry-picking: every shared coin counts.
Fair Value Gap (SMC) wins this matchup 48–2 across 50 shared coins. That's a description of one past period with default parameters — regimes move this scoreboard, which is why it refreshes monthly.
SMA Breakout
- Coins won (full-period return)
- 2
- Median out-of-sample Sharpe
- -0.48
- Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
- 8
- Median return
- -25.9%
- Median max drawdown
- -44.6%
Fair Value Gap (SMC)🏆
- Coins won (full-period return)
- 48
- Median out-of-sample Sharpe
- 0.26
- Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
- 38
- Median return
- +377.2%
- Median max drawdown
- -35.3%
Coin by coin
| Coin | SMA Breakout | Fair Value Gap (SMC) | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAVE | -35.5% | +1909.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ADA | -22.9% | +489.3% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ALGO | -62.5% | +435.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| APT | -3.8% | +271.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ARB | -30.4% | +131.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ATOM | -41.7% | +28.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| AVAX | -28.6% | +2181.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| AXS | +345.8% | +120.6% | SMA Breakout |
| BNB | -27.7% | +268.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| BTC | -41.2% | -62.5% | SMA Breakout |
| DOGE | +188.4% | +2058.0% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| DOT | -42.8% | +96.2% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| EGLD | +28.4% | +203.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ETC | -40.1% | +229.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ETH | -54.8% | +55.3% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| FET | +181.3% | +9397.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| FIL | -60.7% | +70.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| FLOW | -50.6% | +266.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| GRT | -58.0% | +496.3% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| HBAR | -28.6% | +156.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ICP | +15.2% | +689.2% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| IMX | +96.9% | +1487.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| INJ | +161.1% | +654.2% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| JUP | -3.7% | +16.8% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| LDO | +21.6% | +505.3% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| LINK | -47.3% | -6.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| LTC | -41.7% | +66.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| MANA | -52.4% | +5394.2% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| MATIC | -30.0% | +342.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| MKR | -16.6% | +407.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| NEAR | -11.8% | +4830.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| OP | +133.7% | +579.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| PEPE | +26.0% | +1604.3% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| RENDER | -16.6% | +194.0% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| RUNE | +85.9% | +704.3% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SAND | -37.0% | +3895.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SEI | +0.5% | +404.8% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SHIB | -33.6% | +1161.2% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SOL | -46.3% | +96.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SUI | +67.8% | +112.2% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| THETA | -31.1% | +391.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| TIA | -24.1% | +173.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| TON | -23.2% | +9.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| TRX | -4.0% | +41.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| UNI | -43.0% | +910.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| VET | -70.0% | +1051.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| WIF | -7.3% | +210.8% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| XLM | -14.0% | +810.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| XRP | -31.4% | +699.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| XTZ | +17.7% | +362.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
Returns are full-period (since 2021), default parameters, $10,000 starting balance. Click a ticker for the full per-coin breakdown.
Settle it on your own terms
Default parameters on daily bars is one arena. Test either strategy on your coin, your timeframe and your risk rules — free, with the same out-of-sample honesty check.
Auto-generated from real backtests of the stated past period with default parameters. Hypothetical results, not financial advice; past performance does not guarantee future results.