Updated 2026-07-09 · refreshed monthly
SMA Breakout vs EMA Crossover
Both strategies backtested with default parameters on the same 50 coins, daily bars since 2021, $10,000 and standard fees — then compared per coin and on unseen data. No cherry-picking: every shared coin counts.
EMA Crossover wins this matchup 37–13 across 50 shared coins. That's a description of one past period with default parameters — regimes move this scoreboard, which is why it refreshes monthly.
SMA Breakout
- Coins won (full-period return)
- 13
- Median out-of-sample Sharpe
- -0.46
- Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
- 12
- Median return
- -24.0%
- Median max drawdown
- -44.3%
EMA Crossover🏆
- Coins won (full-period return)
- 37
- Median out-of-sample Sharpe
- -0.06
- Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
- 23
- Median return
- +10.1%
- Median max drawdown
- -16.8%
Coin by coin
| Coin | SMA Breakout | EMA Crossover | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAVE | -34.2% | +41.0% | EMA Crossover |
| ADA | -19.8% | +9.5% | EMA Crossover |
| ALGO | -61.5% | +45.0% | EMA Crossover |
| APT | +2.9% | -11.1% | SMA Breakout |
| ARB | -30.4% | +15.9% | EMA Crossover |
| ATOM | -41.7% | +5.0% | EMA Crossover |
| AVAX | -23.9% | +15.0% | EMA Crossover |
| AXS | +345.8% | +68.3% | SMA Breakout |
| BNB | -25.8% | -6.4% | EMA Crossover |
| BTC | -40.6% | +6.3% | EMA Crossover |
| DOGE | +203.2% | +52.5% | SMA Breakout |
| DOT | -40.3% | -18.9% | EMA Crossover |
| EGLD | +28.4% | -7.7% | SMA Breakout |
| ETC | -36.2% | +23.4% | EMA Crossover |
| ETH | -54.8% | -24.0% | EMA Crossover |
| FET | +192.6% | +194.2% | EMA Crossover |
| FIL | -60.5% | +10.8% | EMA Crossover |
| FLOW | -54.0% | -27.9% | EMA Crossover |
| GRT | -58.0% | +34.6% | EMA Crossover |
| HBAR | -26.3% | +46.4% | EMA Crossover |
| ICP | +18.7% | +43.6% | EMA Crossover |
| IMX | +101.4% | +38.1% | SMA Breakout |
| INJ | +175.1% | +9.4% | SMA Breakout |
| JUP | -2.0% | +1.9% | EMA Crossover |
| LDO | +21.6% | -1.3% | SMA Breakout |
| LINK | -45.5% | +35.9% | EMA Crossover |
| LTC | -41.7% | -9.8% | EMA Crossover |
| MANA | -52.4% | +18.2% | EMA Crossover |
| MATIC | -30.0% | -26.5% | EMA Crossover |
| MKR | -16.6% | +20.1% | EMA Crossover |
| NEAR | -12.7% | +43.8% | EMA Crossover |
| OP | +134.8% | -4.2% | SMA Breakout |
| PEPE | +27.7% | +3.0% | SMA Breakout |
| RENDER | -16.6% | +28.7% | EMA Crossover |
| RUNE | +86.2% | +31.0% | SMA Breakout |
| SAND | -35.9% | -9.0% | EMA Crossover |
| SEI | +0.5% | -8.2% | SMA Breakout |
| SHIB | -39.9% | -7.8% | EMA Crossover |
| SOL | -45.8% | +45.6% | EMA Crossover |
| SUI | +69.1% | +49.0% | SMA Breakout |
| THETA | -31.1% | +7.0% | EMA Crossover |
| TIA | -24.1% | +4.0% | EMA Crossover |
| TON | -23.2% | -4.4% | EMA Crossover |
| TRX | -2.4% | +30.0% | EMA Crossover |
| UNI | -43.0% | -11.6% | EMA Crossover |
| VET | -69.3% | +33.1% | EMA Crossover |
| WIF | -6.3% | +51.3% | EMA Crossover |
| XLM | -11.3% | +29.9% | EMA Crossover |
| XRP | -29.7% | -18.9% | EMA Crossover |
| XTZ | +24.3% | -11.8% | SMA Breakout |
Returns are full-period (since 2021), default parameters, $10,000 starting balance. Click a ticker for the full per-coin breakdown.
Settle it on your own terms
Default parameters on daily bars is one arena. Test either strategy on your coin, your timeframe and your risk rules — free, with the same out-of-sample honesty check.
Auto-generated from real backtests of the stated past period with default parameters. Hypothetical results, not financial advice; past performance does not guarantee future results.