Updated 2026-08-01 · refreshed monthly
SMA Breakout vs EMA Crossover
Both strategies backtested with default parameters on the same 50 coins, daily bars since 2021, $10,000 and standard fees — then compared per coin and on unseen data. No cherry-picking: every shared coin counts.
EMA Crossover wins this matchup 37–13 across 50 shared coins. That's a description of one past period with default parameters — regimes move this scoreboard, which is why it refreshes monthly.
SMA Breakout
- Coins won (full-period return)
- 13
- Median out-of-sample Sharpe
- -0.48
- Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
- 8
- Median return
- -25.9%
- Median max drawdown
- -44.6%
EMA Crossover🏆
- Coins won (full-period return)
- 37
- Median out-of-sample Sharpe
- 0.03
- Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
- 25
- Median return
- +11.3%
- Median max drawdown
- -16.8%
Coin by coin
| Coin | SMA Breakout | EMA Crossover | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAVE | -35.5% | +41.0% | EMA Crossover |
| ADA | -22.9% | +8.7% | EMA Crossover |
| ALGO | -62.5% | +45.0% | EMA Crossover |
| APT | -3.8% | -11.1% | SMA Breakout |
| ARB | -30.4% | +18.6% | EMA Crossover |
| ATOM | -41.7% | +5.0% | EMA Crossover |
| AVAX | -28.6% | +15.0% | EMA Crossover |
| AXS | +345.8% | +68.3% | SMA Breakout |
| BNB | -27.7% | -6.4% | EMA Crossover |
| BTC | -41.2% | +3.2% | EMA Crossover |
| DOGE | +188.4% | +52.5% | SMA Breakout |
| DOT | -42.8% | -18.9% | EMA Crossover |
| EGLD | +28.4% | +4.0% | SMA Breakout |
| ETC | -40.1% | +23.4% | EMA Crossover |
| ETH | -54.8% | -25.1% | EMA Crossover |
| FET | +181.3% | +194.2% | EMA Crossover |
| FIL | -60.7% | +10.8% | EMA Crossover |
| FLOW | -50.6% | -27.9% | EMA Crossover |
| GRT | -58.0% | +34.6% | EMA Crossover |
| HBAR | -28.6% | +46.4% | EMA Crossover |
| ICP | +15.2% | +43.6% | EMA Crossover |
| IMX | +96.9% | +38.1% | SMA Breakout |
| INJ | +161.1% | +11.9% | SMA Breakout |
| JUP | -3.7% | +1.9% | EMA Crossover |
| LDO | +21.6% | +0.3% | SMA Breakout |
| LINK | -47.3% | +34.8% | EMA Crossover |
| LTC | -41.7% | -7.9% | EMA Crossover |
| MANA | -52.4% | +18.1% | EMA Crossover |
| MATIC | -30.0% | -26.5% | EMA Crossover |
| MKR | -16.6% | +20.1% | EMA Crossover |
| NEAR | -11.8% | +43.8% | EMA Crossover |
| OP | +133.7% | -4.2% | SMA Breakout |
| PEPE | +26.0% | +3.4% | SMA Breakout |
| RENDER | -16.6% | +28.7% | EMA Crossover |
| RUNE | +85.9% | +28.6% | SMA Breakout |
| SAND | -37.0% | -9.0% | EMA Crossover |
| SEI | +0.5% | -8.2% | SMA Breakout |
| SHIB | -33.6% | -16.1% | EMA Crossover |
| SOL | -46.3% | +45.6% | EMA Crossover |
| SUI | +67.8% | +45.6% | SMA Breakout |
| THETA | -31.1% | +7.0% | EMA Crossover |
| TIA | -24.1% | +4.0% | EMA Crossover |
| TON | -23.2% | -4.4% | EMA Crossover |
| TRX | -4.0% | +24.9% | EMA Crossover |
| UNI | -43.0% | -11.6% | EMA Crossover |
| VET | -70.0% | +33.1% | EMA Crossover |
| WIF | -7.3% | +51.3% | EMA Crossover |
| XLM | -14.0% | +29.9% | EMA Crossover |
| XRP | -31.4% | -18.9% | EMA Crossover |
| XTZ | +17.7% | -11.8% | SMA Breakout |
Returns are full-period (since 2021), default parameters, $10,000 starting balance. Click a ticker for the full per-coin breakdown.
Settle it on your own terms
Default parameters on daily bars is one arena. Test either strategy on your coin, your timeframe and your risk rules — free, with the same out-of-sample honesty check.
Auto-generated from real backtests of the stated past period with default parameters. Hypothetical results, not financial advice; past performance does not guarantee future results.