Updated 2026-10-01 · refreshed monthly
Bollinger Reversion vs MACD Trend
Both strategies backtested with default parameters on the same 50 coins, daily bars since 2021, $10,000 and standard fees — then compared per coin and on unseen data. No cherry-picking: every shared coin counts.
Dead heat: Bollinger Reversion and MACD Trend split the shared coins evenly. That's a description of one past period with default parameters — regimes move this scoreboard, which is why it refreshes monthly.
Bollinger Reversion
- Coins won (full-period return)
- 24
- Median out-of-sample Sharpe
- -0.08
- Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
- 17
- Median return
- -3.4%
- Median max drawdown
- -10.1%
MACD Trend
- Coins won (full-period return)
- 24
- Median out-of-sample Sharpe
- -0.23
- Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
- 18
- Median return
- -2.6%
- Median max drawdown
- -43.0%
2 coins were ties (return gap under 0.5 points).
Coin by coin
| Coin | Bollinger Reversion | MACD Trend | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAVE | -5.2% | -41.2% | Bollinger Reversion |
| ADA | -8.1% | +2.2% | MACD Trend |
| ALGO | +0.3% | -20.6% | Bollinger Reversion |
| APT | +5.5% | -5.7% | Bollinger Reversion |
| ARB | +0.0% | -33.6% | Bollinger Reversion |
| ATOM | -5.0% | -33.5% | Bollinger Reversion |
| AVAX | -8.4% | +33.9% | MACD Trend |
| AXS | -12.0% | +69.1% | MACD Trend |
| BNB | +3.4% | +16.8% | MACD Trend |
| BTC | -6.7% | -40.2% | Bollinger Reversion |
| DOGE | +9.8% | +3.9% | Bollinger Reversion |
| DOT | -2.0% | -2.5% | — |
| EGLD | -9.8% | -10.7% | Bollinger Reversion |
| ETC | -11.3% | -2.8% | MACD Trend |
| ETH | -6.0% | -35.7% | Bollinger Reversion |
| FET | -2.7% | +0.8% | MACD Trend |
| FIL | +1.1% | -27.2% | Bollinger Reversion |
| FLOW | -4.4% | -28.9% | Bollinger Reversion |
| GRT | -17.3% | -23.6% | Bollinger Reversion |
| HBAR | -15.8% | +25.2% | MACD Trend |
| ICP | +2.6% | +43.3% | MACD Trend |
| IMX | -4.1% | -0.9% | MACD Trend |
| INJ | +4.0% | +15.5% | MACD Trend |
| JUP | -3.7% | +34.7% | MACD Trend |
| LDO | +6.8% | -31.9% | Bollinger Reversion |
| LINK | +5.7% | -34.2% | Bollinger Reversion |
| LTC | -6.4% | -33.5% | Bollinger Reversion |
| MANA | -3.1% | -44.9% | Bollinger Reversion |
| MATIC | -13.8% | +94.6% | MACD Trend |
| MKR | -10.0% | +37.5% | MACD Trend |
| NEAR | -2.3% | +95.0% | MACD Trend |
| OP | -13.8% | +15.0% | MACD Trend |
| PEPE | +4.0% | +52.7% | MACD Trend |
| RENDER | -6.4% | -19.6% | Bollinger Reversion |
| RUNE | +3.0% | +105.5% | MACD Trend |
| SAND | -0.0% | -59.7% | Bollinger Reversion |
| SEI | +2.1% | -50.0% | Bollinger Reversion |
| SHIB | -0.6% | 0.0% | MACD Trend |
| SOL | +1.8% | +11.6% | MACD Trend |
| SUI | -1.8% | -47.9% | Bollinger Reversion |
| THETA | -4.0% | -50.5% | Bollinger Reversion |
| TIA | +1.0% | +25.5% | MACD Trend |
| TON | -7.2% | -6.8% | — |
| TRX | -5.5% | +9.7% | MACD Trend |
| UNI | -0.0% | +9.4% | MACD Trend |
| VET | -10.6% | +26.3% | MACD Trend |
| WIF | -6.8% | +94.1% | MACD Trend |
| XLM | +1.6% | -22.1% | Bollinger Reversion |
| XRP | +18.4% | -2.9% | Bollinger Reversion |
| XTZ | -14.1% | -18.9% | Bollinger Reversion |
Returns are full-period (since 2021), default parameters, $10,000 starting balance. Click a ticker for the full per-coin breakdown.
Settle it on your own terms
Default parameters on daily bars is one arena. Test either strategy on your coin, your timeframe and your risk rules — free, with the same out-of-sample honesty check.
Auto-generated from real backtests of the stated past period with default parameters. Hypothetical results, not financial advice; past performance does not guarantee future results.