Noon Barbari

Updated 2026-07-09 · refreshed monthly

Bollinger Reversion vs SMA Breakout

Both strategies backtested with default parameters on the same 50 coins, daily bars since 2021, $10,000 and standard fees — then compared per coin and on unseen data. No cherry-picking: every shared coin counts.

Bollinger Reversion wins this matchup 34–16 across 50 shared coins. That's a description of one past period with default parameters — regimes move this scoreboard, which is why it refreshes monthly.

Bollinger Reversion🏆

Coins won (full-period return)
34
Median out-of-sample Sharpe
-0.17
Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
19
Median return
-4.6%
Median max drawdown
-9.9%

About Bollinger Reversion

SMA Breakout

Coins won (full-period return)
16
Median out-of-sample Sharpe
-0.46
Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
12
Median return
-24.0%
Median max drawdown
-44.3%

About SMA Breakout

Coin by coin

CoinBollinger ReversionSMA BreakoutWinner
AAVE-5.2%-34.2%Bollinger Reversion
ADA-8.1%-19.8%Bollinger Reversion
ALGO+0.3%-61.5%Bollinger Reversion
APT+1.6%+2.9%SMA Breakout
ARB-0.8%-30.4%Bollinger Reversion
ATOM-5.7%-41.7%Bollinger Reversion
AVAX-10.6%-23.9%Bollinger Reversion
AXS-10.1%+345.8%SMA Breakout
BNB+3.4%-25.8%Bollinger Reversion
BTC-6.7%-40.6%Bollinger Reversion
DOGE+7.7%+203.2%SMA Breakout
DOT-2.0%-40.3%Bollinger Reversion
EGLD-9.8%+28.4%SMA Breakout
ETC-10.4%-36.2%Bollinger Reversion
ETH-6.0%-54.8%Bollinger Reversion
FET-6.4%+192.6%SMA Breakout
FIL+3.3%-60.5%Bollinger Reversion
FLOW-5.5%-54.0%Bollinger Reversion
GRT-16.4%-58.0%Bollinger Reversion
HBAR-15.8%-26.3%Bollinger Reversion
ICP+3.8%+18.7%SMA Breakout
IMX-5.0%+101.4%SMA Breakout
INJ+5.1%+175.1%SMA Breakout
JUP-2.6%-2.0%SMA Breakout
LDO+4.3%+21.6%SMA Breakout
LINK+5.7%-45.5%Bollinger Reversion
LTC-6.4%-41.7%Bollinger Reversion
MANA-1.1%-52.4%Bollinger Reversion
MATIC-13.8%-30.0%Bollinger Reversion
MKR-10.0%-16.6%Bollinger Reversion
NEAR-4.1%-12.7%Bollinger Reversion
OP-13.0%+134.8%SMA Breakout
PEPE+2.2%+27.7%SMA Breakout
RENDER-5.3%-16.6%Bollinger Reversion
RUNE+2.7%+86.2%SMA Breakout
SAND+0.1%-35.9%Bollinger Reversion
SEI+3.0%+0.5%Bollinger Reversion
SHIB-1.1%-39.9%Bollinger Reversion
SOL-0.1%-45.8%Bollinger Reversion
SUI-3.6%+69.1%SMA Breakout
THETA-5.8%-31.1%Bollinger Reversion
TIA+2.1%-24.1%Bollinger Reversion
TON-7.2%-23.2%Bollinger Reversion
TRX-7.3%-2.4%SMA Breakout
UNI+1.1%-43.0%Bollinger Reversion
VET-10.6%-69.3%Bollinger Reversion
WIF-5.8%-6.3%Bollinger Reversion
XLM+2.7%-11.3%Bollinger Reversion
XRP+16.1%-29.7%Bollinger Reversion
XTZ-13.1%+24.3%SMA Breakout

Returns are full-period (since 2021), default parameters, $10,000 starting balance. Click a ticker for the full per-coin breakdown.

Settle it on your own terms

Default parameters on daily bars is one arena. Test either strategy on your coin, your timeframe and your risk rules — free, with the same out-of-sample honesty check.

Auto-generated from real backtests of the stated past period with default parameters. Hypothetical results, not financial advice; past performance does not guarantee future results.