Noon Barbari

Updated 2026-08-01 · refreshed monthly

Bollinger Reversion vs SMA Breakout

Both strategies backtested with default parameters on the same 50 coins, daily bars since 2021, $10,000 and standard fees — then compared per coin and on unseen data. No cherry-picking: every shared coin counts.

Bollinger Reversion wins this matchup 36–14 across 50 shared coins. That's a description of one past period with default parameters — regimes move this scoreboard, which is why it refreshes monthly.

Bollinger Reversion🏆

Coins won (full-period return)
36
Median out-of-sample Sharpe
-0.11
Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
18
Median return
-4.1%
Median max drawdown
-9.9%

About Bollinger Reversion

SMA Breakout

Coins won (full-period return)
14
Median out-of-sample Sharpe
-0.48
Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
8
Median return
-25.9%
Median max drawdown
-44.6%

About SMA Breakout

Coin by coin

CoinBollinger ReversionSMA BreakoutWinner
AAVE-5.2%-35.5%Bollinger Reversion
ADA-8.1%-22.9%Bollinger Reversion
ALGO+0.3%-62.5%Bollinger Reversion
APT+1.6%-3.8%Bollinger Reversion
ARB-1.2%-30.4%Bollinger Reversion
ATOM-6.7%-41.7%Bollinger Reversion
AVAX-8.9%-28.6%Bollinger Reversion
AXS-12.0%+345.8%SMA Breakout
BNB+3.4%-27.7%Bollinger Reversion
BTC-6.7%-41.2%Bollinger Reversion
DOGE+9.8%+188.4%SMA Breakout
DOT-2.0%-42.8%Bollinger Reversion
EGLD-9.8%+28.4%SMA Breakout
ETC-11.3%-40.1%Bollinger Reversion
ETH-6.0%-54.8%Bollinger Reversion
FET-4.1%+181.3%SMA Breakout
FIL+3.3%-60.7%Bollinger Reversion
FLOW-4.4%-50.6%Bollinger Reversion
GRT-17.3%-58.0%Bollinger Reversion
HBAR-15.8%-28.6%Bollinger Reversion
ICP+3.8%+15.2%SMA Breakout
IMX-5.0%+96.9%SMA Breakout
INJ+5.1%+161.1%SMA Breakout
JUP-2.6%-3.7%Bollinger Reversion
LDO+4.3%+21.6%SMA Breakout
LINK+5.7%-47.3%Bollinger Reversion
LTC-6.4%-41.7%Bollinger Reversion
MANA-2.1%-52.4%Bollinger Reversion
MATIC-13.8%-30.0%Bollinger Reversion
MKR-10.0%-16.6%Bollinger Reversion
NEAR-4.1%-11.8%Bollinger Reversion
OP-14.1%+133.7%SMA Breakout
PEPE+2.2%+26.0%SMA Breakout
RENDER-6.4%-16.6%Bollinger Reversion
RUNE+2.7%+85.9%SMA Breakout
SAND-1.0%-37.0%Bollinger Reversion
SEI+3.0%+0.5%Bollinger Reversion
SHIB-0.6%-33.6%Bollinger Reversion
SOL-0.1%-46.3%Bollinger Reversion
SUI-3.6%+67.8%SMA Breakout
THETA-5.8%-31.1%Bollinger Reversion
TIA+2.1%-24.1%Bollinger Reversion
TON-7.2%-23.2%Bollinger Reversion
TRX-7.3%-4.0%SMA Breakout
UNI+1.1%-43.0%Bollinger Reversion
VET-10.6%-70.0%Bollinger Reversion
WIF-5.8%-7.3%Bollinger Reversion
XLM+2.7%-14.0%Bollinger Reversion
XRP+16.1%-31.4%Bollinger Reversion
XTZ-14.1%+17.7%SMA Breakout

Returns are full-period (since 2021), default parameters, $10,000 starting balance. Click a ticker for the full per-coin breakdown.

Settle it on your own terms

Default parameters on daily bars is one arena. Test either strategy on your coin, your timeframe and your risk rules — free, with the same out-of-sample honesty check.

Auto-generated from real backtests of the stated past period with default parameters. Hypothetical results, not financial advice; past performance does not guarantee future results.