Updated 2026-08-01 · refreshed monthly
ATR Volatility Breakout vs Fair Value Gap (SMC)
Both strategies backtested with default parameters on the same 50 coins, daily bars since 2021, $10,000 and standard fees — then compared per coin and on unseen data. No cherry-picking: every shared coin counts.
Fair Value Gap (SMC) wins this matchup 48–2 across 50 shared coins. That's a description of one past period with default parameters — regimes move this scoreboard, which is why it refreshes monthly.
ATR Volatility Breakout
- Coins won (full-period return)
- 2
- Median out-of-sample Sharpe
- -0.60
- Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
- 9
- Median return
- -35.8%
- Median max drawdown
- -56.8%
Fair Value Gap (SMC)🏆
- Coins won (full-period return)
- 48
- Median out-of-sample Sharpe
- 0.26
- Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
- 38
- Median return
- +377.2%
- Median max drawdown
- -35.3%
Coin by coin
| Coin | ATR Volatility Breakout | Fair Value Gap (SMC) | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAVE | -11.2% | +1909.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ADA | -7.8% | +489.3% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ALGO | -64.4% | +435.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| APT | -35.8% | +271.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ARB | -39.1% | +131.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ATOM | -63.2% | +28.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| AVAX | -21.5% | +2181.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| AXS | +145.4% | +120.6% | ATR Volatility Breakout |
| BNB | -47.5% | +268.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| BTC | -59.6% | -62.5% | ATR Volatility Breakout |
| DOGE | -53.5% | +2058.0% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| DOT | -45.3% | +96.2% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| EGLD | -4.9% | +203.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ETC | -62.9% | +229.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ETH | -37.4% | +55.3% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| FET | -34.7% | +9397.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| FIL | -78.5% | +70.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| FLOW | -35.7% | +266.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| GRT | -58.6% | +496.3% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| HBAR | -46.5% | +156.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ICP | -15.8% | +689.2% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| IMX | +32.6% | +1487.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| INJ | -52.8% | +654.2% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| JUP | -18.4% | +16.8% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| LDO | -17.0% | +505.3% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| LINK | -53.8% | -6.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| LTC | -34.4% | +66.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| MANA | -29.4% | +5394.2% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| MATIC | +18.4% | +342.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| MKR | -21.6% | +407.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| NEAR | +56.0% | +4830.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| OP | -20.1% | +579.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| PEPE | +6.1% | +1604.3% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| RENDER | -15.0% | +194.0% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| RUNE | +31.0% | +704.3% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SAND | -72.0% | +3895.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SEI | -54.8% | +404.8% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SHIB | -50.7% | +1161.2% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SOL | -47.8% | +96.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SUI | -12.6% | +112.2% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| THETA | -55.3% | +391.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| TIA | -54.9% | +173.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| TON | -15.5% | +9.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| TRX | -26.8% | +41.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| UNI | -64.3% | +910.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| VET | -47.3% | +1051.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| WIF | +14.1% | +210.8% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| XLM | -37.1% | +810.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| XRP | -25.2% | +699.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| XTZ | -71.8% | +362.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
Returns are full-period (since 2021), default parameters, $10,000 starting balance. Click a ticker for the full per-coin breakdown.
Settle it on your own terms
Default parameters on daily bars is one arena. Test either strategy on your coin, your timeframe and your risk rules — free, with the same out-of-sample honesty check.
Auto-generated from real backtests of the stated past period with default parameters. Hypothetical results, not financial advice; past performance does not guarantee future results.