Updated 2026-07-09 · refreshed monthly
ATR Volatility Breakout vs Fair Value Gap (SMC)
Both strategies backtested with default parameters on the same 50 coins, daily bars since 2021, $10,000 and standard fees — then compared per coin and on unseen data. No cherry-picking: every shared coin counts.
Fair Value Gap (SMC) wins this matchup 48–2 across 50 shared coins. That's a description of one past period with default parameters — regimes move this scoreboard, which is why it refreshes monthly.
ATR Volatility Breakout
- Coins won (full-period return)
- 2
- Median out-of-sample Sharpe
- -0.60
- Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
- 9
- Median return
- -35.3%
- Median max drawdown
- -55.6%
Fair Value Gap (SMC)🏆
- Coins won (full-period return)
- 48
- Median out-of-sample Sharpe
- 0.43
- Coins where OOS Sharpe stayed positive
- 41
- Median return
- +370.1%
- Median max drawdown
- -35.3%
Coin by coin
| Coin | ATR Volatility Breakout | Fair Value Gap (SMC) | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAVE | -10.5% | +1942.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ADA | -5.8% | +508.0% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ALGO | -63.9% | +431.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| APT | -34.2% | +269.0% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ARB | -39.1% | +115.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ATOM | -63.2% | +24.0% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| AVAX | -12.0% | +2251.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| AXS | +145.4% | +121.7% | ATR Volatility Breakout |
| BNB | -46.1% | +271.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| BTC | -57.8% | -60.0% | ATR Volatility Breakout |
| DOGE | -51.9% | +2096.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| DOT | -45.3% | +106.0% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| EGLD | -4.9% | +171.0% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ETC | -60.9% | +245.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ETH | -37.4% | +56.2% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| FET | -34.7% | +9307.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| FIL | -78.4% | +67.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| FLOW | -40.8% | +267.3% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| GRT | -58.6% | +505.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| HBAR | -47.6% | +165.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| ICP | -11.2% | +697.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| IMX | +32.6% | +1445.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| INJ | -52.3% | +684.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| JUP | -17.0% | +17.0% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| LDO | -17.0% | +485.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| LINK | -52.8% | -1.8% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| LTC | -33.2% | +67.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| MANA | -25.6% | +5395.0% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| MATIC | +18.4% | +342.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| MKR | -21.6% | +407.9% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| NEAR | +55.3% | +4882.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| OP | -20.6% | +594.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| PEPE | +13.0% | +1633.3% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| RENDER | -15.0% | +202.4% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| RUNE | +31.0% | +706.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SAND | -72.0% | +3982.3% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SEI | -54.8% | +398.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SHIB | -56.8% | +1191.3% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SOL | -44.8% | +104.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| SUI | -11.3% | +117.3% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| THETA | -55.5% | +388.7% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| TIA | -54.9% | +183.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| TON | -15.5% | +9.1% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| TRX | -25.3% | +41.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| UNI | -64.3% | +924.2% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| VET | -45.4% | +1058.6% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| WIF | +14.1% | +221.2% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| XLM | -35.8% | +868.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| XRP | -20.3% | +728.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
| XTZ | -71.1% | +351.5% | Fair Value Gap (SMC) |
Returns are full-period (since 2021), default parameters, $10,000 starting balance. Click a ticker for the full per-coin breakdown.
Settle it on your own terms
Default parameters on daily bars is one arena. Test either strategy on your coin, your timeframe and your risk rules — free, with the same out-of-sample honesty check.
Auto-generated from real backtests of the stated past period with default parameters. Hypothetical results, not financial advice; past performance does not guarantee future results.