Validazione e overfitting
What does out-of-sample mean in backtesting?
Out-of-sample (OOS) data is history the strategy was never tuned on. A common split is chronological 70/30: design and optimize on the first 70% (in-sample), then run the frozen strategy once on the final 30%. The OOS result is the honest one — the in-sample number is what the strategy was shaped to produce.
The discipline is in the "once": if you peek at the OOS result, adjust the strategy, and test again, the out-of-sample data quietly becomes in-sample and its evidential value is gone. Count your shots.
La risposta più rapida è un test
La maggior parte delle domande "X funziona?" si risponde empiricamente in un minuto — su dati reali, con controllo out-of-sample, gratis.
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Contenuto educativo, non consulenza finanziaria. Le cifre da backtest e storiche descrivono solo periodi passati; i rendimenti passati non garantiscono risultati futuri.