What if?

Trend Magic · BTC/USDT

Replayed on 1d bars from Jul 11, 2024 Jul 11, 2026

Starting balance
$1000.00
Today
$568.93
Return
-43.11%
Trades
55

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Robustness scorecard

Is this a real edge, or just curve-fit? Our verdict from a deflated-Sharpe and white-noise test.

B
85/100
Verdict
Likely overfit / curve-fit
Deflated Sharpe
2%
probability of a true edge
vs random walk
50th pct
p = 0.979

Single-pass backtest — deflated Sharpe accounts for one trial; it is not a full parameter-sweep overfitting probability (PBO). Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Price & trades

Every position the strategy opened and closed, marked on the price.

▲ green = profitable round-trip, ▼ red = loss. Showing 55 trades.

Equity curve

Stats

StrategyTrend Magic
SymbolBTC/USDT
Timeframe1d
Starting balance$1000.00
Final equity$568.93
Return-43.11%
Max drawdown46.24%
Trades55

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