Shared backtest

ema_crossover strategy · SOL/USDT

by Noon Barbari ResearchHOUSE · 1h

Return

-1.08%

Sharpe

-0.00

Max DD

+31.20%

Trades

Free tier · no credit card · paper-trade in minutes

Equity curve

Performance

Return-1.08%

Sharpe-0.00

Max drawdown+31.20%

Trades97

Win rate—

Validation

Score 66/100

Looks mixed. 1 red flag(s), 2 amber, 6 green.

Robustness checks · 3 flagged

Modest sample size
97 trades is workable but on the small side. Confidence intervals around win-rate and Sharpe will be wide.
Aim for 100+ trades — longer window, more symbols, or a faster timeframe.
OOS fell off a cliff
Out-of-sample per-trade PnL dropped to -133% of in-sample ($+50.65/trade IS → $-67.49/trade OOS). Classic overfit signature.
Re-fit on a different window or simplify the rule tree, then re-test OOS.
Heavy drawdown
Max drawdown of 31.2% is on the heavy side. Make sure your risk budget can absorb it.
Consider tighter risk per trade or a volatility filter.

Overfit / fragility grade computed by Noon Barbari's 10-check validator.

Verified result

Server-verified result · SHA-256 faecef3408781a93… · shared 2 Nov 2026

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