Shared backtest

ema_crossover strategy · ETH/USDT

by adda65 · 1h

Return

-14.62%

Sharpe

-0.03

Max DD

+25.61%

Trades

Free tier · no credit card · paper-trade in minutes

Equity curve

Performance

Return-14.62%

Sharpe-0.03

Max drawdown+25.61%

Trades41

Win rate—

Validation

Score 66/100

Looks mixed. 1 red flag(s), 2 amber, 6 green.

Robustness checks · 3 flagged

Modest sample size
41 trades is workable but on the small side. Confidence intervals around win-rate and Sharpe will be wide.
Aim for 100+ trades — longer window, more symbols, or a faster timeframe.
OOS fell off a cliff
Out-of-sample per-trade PnL dropped to -665% of in-sample ($+16.61/trade IS → $-110.43/trade OOS). Classic overfit signature.
Re-fit on a different window or simplify the rule tree, then re-test OOS.
PnL leans on top trades
Top 3 trades = 77.4% of total gains. Above the comfortable 60% threshold — edge is somewhat concentrated.
Confirm the edge isn't a few outlier moves you can't count on repeating.

Overfit / fragility grade computed by Noon Barbari's 10-check validator.

Verified result

Server-verified result · SHA-256 433040a92a2de5f5… · shared 1 Nov 2026

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